Pipeline Management: The System That Actually Works
Most sales pipelines are fiction. Deals sit in stages they left months ago. Probabilities are guesses. Forecasts are hopes dressed up as predictions. This dysfunction isn't inevitable—it's the result of bad pipeline hygiene.
Here's a system that produces accurate forecasts and highlights problems before they kill your quarter.
Stage Definitions That Mean Something
Pipeline stages should reflect buyer behavior, not seller activity. "Sent proposal" tells you what you did. "Evaluating proposal" tells you where the buyer is. The difference matters.
You've had a real conversation. You understand their problem, timeline, budget range, and decision process. The prospect has confirmed these details. Not assumed—confirmed.
You've shown how your solution addresses their specific problem. They've seen pricing. They've agreed the solution could work for them. Key stakeholders have been involved.
They're actively comparing options, running a proof of concept, or getting internal approvals. There's a defined next step with a date. You're not waiting and hoping.
They've said yes. You're working out contract details. Legal is reviewing. The decision is made—only paperwork remains.
Probability That Reflects Reality
Don't let reps assign their own probabilities. Define probabilities by stage based on your historical conversion data:
| Stage | Typical Probability | Based On |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery Complete | 20% | Historical: 1 in 5 discoveries close |
| Solution Presented | 40% | Historical: 2 in 5 presentations close |
| Evaluation Active | 60% | Historical: 3 in 5 evaluations close |
| Verbal Commit | 90% | Historical: 9 in 10 verbals close |
These numbers should come from your actual data, not industry benchmarks. If your discovery-to-close rate is 10%, your stage 1 probability is 10%. Fiction helps no one.
The Weekly Pipeline Review
Every week, review every deal in pipeline. Not a status update meeting—a reality check meeting. For each deal:
What happened this week? If nothing happened, the deal isn't active. Deals that haven't moved in two weeks need intervention or removal.
What's the next step? A specific action with a specific date. "Follow up" isn't a next step. "Call Tuesday to review legal's questions" is a next step.
Is this stage accurate? Stage 3 means active evaluation. If they're "thinking about it" with no defined process, that's stage 2 at best.
Pipeline Hygiene Rules
Enforce these without exception:
No deal stays in the same stage for more than 30 days. Either it advances, it moves backward, or it's dead. Zombie deals destroy forecast accuracy.
Close dates must be justified. If a rep says "end of month," ask why. Close dates should reflect buyer timelines, not quota pressure.
Lost deals require documented reasons. This data is gold. Patterns in lost deals reveal problems in your sales process, product, or targeting.
The Payoff
Clean pipelines produce reliable forecasts. When you know your stage probabilities and every deal is in the right stage, weighted pipeline becomes a real prediction rather than a prayer.
More importantly, clean pipelines surface problems early. A deal stuck in stage 2 for three weeks is a deal in trouble. You can intervene—change the approach, bring in leadership, address objections—before the quarter ends and you're explaining the miss.